Hurricane Forecasting

Someone said a few years back that if weather satellites could only be used for tracking hurricanes, they would still be worth their cost many times over. It is certainly true. I myself cannot imagine what it was like to try and forecast these things before real time satellite imagery.

Meteorologists have developed a technique for ascertaining the strength of a tropical storm using only satellite imagery. This technique works quite well and is used frequently when recon. aircraft are not available or the storm is still out of range. If you read the hurricane discussions on the Tropical Prediction Center web site, they are mentioned as T numbers.

Some more interesting research into hurricanes has to do with what is called tropical cyclone heat content. Why do some hurricanes weaken before land fall and others get much stronger suddenly. This happens many times when no other factors appear to be involved.

It might very well have to do with the depth of the warm water. Sometimes the warm water is very deep and the hurricane has a lot of energy to draw on. If a storm passes over an area of high heat content just before land fall, then a rapid strengthening is possible.

Looking at some late data tonight, it appears that Dennis may weaken in the Gulf because of lower upper ocean heat content. However, there is an area of high heat content just off the Mississippi coast and if the storm heads for New Orleans or even Mobile, it could pass over this and strengthen just before land fall. Something I will be watching closely this weekend.

One last thing on my mind this morning.

In the last few years the evacuations for hurricanes have been too great in my opinion. Floyd was an example of this. Tell people to evacuate and nothing happens and the next time they may not go. When it does hit, people should be allowed to get back to their homes and salvage what is available.

I've heard quite a few people tell me that they will ride out the storm next time because when it is over they cannot be kept from going back in if they are already there. Not sure I blame them.

I am a weather forecaster and it is not my job to tell people they must leave their homes. You will NEVER hear me do so. I will suggest a course of action based on expected weather conditions though, and when a cat 4 is coming...it is smart advice to get out.

Later,
Dan