Final Thoughts on Climate Change

In my last few blogs I've tried to put forth some good information on climate change with some links to great sites on the web. If you read these I think you will have a pretty good understanding of where we are in climate research.

One more link that will require about 15-20 minutes to listen to. It is a 3 part report that National Public Radio did last year. One of the people interviewed is John Christy from right here in Huntsville. Dr. Christy is one of the lead authors on the latest IPCC assessment. He is well known for research that shows the overall warming of the atmosphere as a whole is much less than some other methods of shown.

While some other researchers have disagreed with portions of his findings, Dr. Christy makes a point that I think is very important. We need to be very careful that regulations to inhibit global warming do not harm the poor of the world.

It is perhaps easy to forget that we live in wealthy world. Most of the world's population is dreadfully poor.

Take a listen to the NPR report.

You might find it interesting to know how some of these climate models work.

We know fairly well what the climate has been like for the last several thousand years. So, if you want to make a prediction of future climate, You test it in the past.

Start it say 1,000 years ago and slowly add in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases , with a huge increase as we reach the industrial revolution. Does the model accurately predict the climate we experienced. If so, then it might do a good job forecasting the next 100 or 200 years.

There are now several models that do a good job. Recent models have tried to predict the warming seen in the last century and it's been found that the model will only project an accurate representation if increased CO² levels are included. This is some powerful evidence of man's influence on the earth's climate.

We do know the earth is warming. The rate is debatable.
We do know that for much of earth history this planet has been much warmer than it is now.
We do know that the last 100,000 years have been much cooler.
We do know that the climate we have now will not last.

We do not know how fast the change will be. (Evidence exists for super fast and super slow change)
We do not know what earth processes may kick in to counter the warming from CO²
We do not know if the ice ages of the past 100,000 years are ending or if we are just in another short interglacial period.

Lots to think about,
When new climate news comes out I will link to it. Hopefully I've managed to make this subject a little less political and much more interesting!

Later,
Dan