Busted Forecasts

Well I had a pretty good streak of over 2 weeks without a busted forecasts. That came to an end on Thursday. .21 inches of partly cloudy to be exact.

When this happens I go back and look at the charts and models and ask myself what I missed. Many times the answer is nothing. The models did not catch it and most of the time my forecast would have verified.

Did the same today and frankly I think I misread the situation. Could have/should have...That is the great thing about forecasting..you always have another forecast to try again!

Many things about Meteorology fascinate me. Many aspects of Science in general.
To me though, Making a forecast is the best.

My wife says I would be just as happy doing it for 3 people as 100,000 or more and she is probably right. (My daughter says all of our family holiday pics are of clouds!)

Make no mistake about it, if I ever had to choose between tv and weather..the hot lights and greasy make up would go!

That said the internet has made it possible to have much more contact with viewers than was ever possible before. I get quite a few emails each day with pics and specific forecast requests.

I Love to show the pictures and am more than happy to work up a forecast for someone. I once did a forecast for a guy going sailing on the Red sea at Christmas time...I wonder how that one turned out....

Dan

Milutin Who???

I meant to update this blog sooner than this but I have been studying for a Historical Geology Final- It's been a real bear.

Some odds and ends on my mind tonight:
The Mets. over at Huntsville NWS went out and did a storm survey of Dekalb county after Friday's storm and upgraded the severe thunderstorm to an F zero tornado.Look for a pic of the wall cloud over Fort Payne on our web site picture gallery.

I'm planning a series of BLOGS on global warming.
There is so much confusing info out there, I think it would be a good idea to write up what is known with a high degree of certainty first. I expect to take some heat though. It seems a lot of people get there science on global warming (either view point) from talk radio hosts these days...

On the subject of planetary climate, Lets mention an almost forgotten scientist. Milutin Milankovitch.
Back inthe 1920's he proposed a theory for explaining the glacial cycles that show up so clearly in the rock record.

Milankovitch cycles are based on 3 variations in earth's orbit.

1.ECCENTRICITY- which varies on a 100,000 year cycle

2. OBLIQUITY. Which causes the seasons
(presently at 23.5 degrees) This is a 41,000 year cycle

3. PRECESSION: The changing of the dates of the seasons.
Right now Dec. 21st is the beginning of Winter, when we are closest to the sun. In 11,000 years it will be June 21st. When we are farthest from the sun.

This theory is still controversial among researchers, but most think it has a lot to do (in one way or another!) with the coming and going of the ice sheets over the continents.

The Naval Observatory has a good explanation of these cycles on it's web site. I have linked directly to it at the top of this blog.Click on LINK.

Over the last 250,000 years..the earth has been a snowball most of the time and we may very well be headed back that way again...well after the ice caps melt from global warming and Birmingham is ocean front property..but I will save that for another blog...