Out of Gas in the Heat

I watched CNN during dinner and was shocked to see the reports of thousands of people out of gas along Interstate 45 in Houston. Apparently the contra flow did not start until noon on Thursday.

It seems to me that this raises serious questions about trying to evacuate everyone from a city of 5 million. (Has there been an over reaction??)

Already there has been one reported death and wire reports say that the hospitals in Houston are swamped with people who got ill in the 100 degree heat and 100 mile long traffic jam.

Houston is no New Orleans.
It is above sea level and a cat 4 hurricane will not be enough to destroy well built strucures that far inland. If my parents or family were in Houston in a well built home, would I tell them to obey the so called mandatory evacuation. Not unless they were near the bay or in an area that slosh models show is very likely to flood.

After setting in the heat for 15 hours on Thursday, will these people go next time a cat 5 is headed their way. Some won't and I don't blame them.

If there was a mass evacuation plan for Houston on paper it sure does not seem to be a very good one. As a meteorologist, I am concerned about thousands of people trapped on a highway with a category 4 hurricane bearing down on them.

Last night in this blog I said if you have relatives down there, tellem to get out. I have changed my mind. Tell them to go to a sturdy building well above sea level and hope for the best.

This reminds me of what happened to long time Meteorologist Bob Breck in New Orleans LAST year during Hurricane Ivan. The roads were so jammed he told his viewers to go back home. He too saw the potential catastrophe of grid locked roads during a major hurricane.

He was attacked by everyone from FEMA to the local police chief and Mayor. Funny how that has apparently not come up this year. I told him in June that I could symapthise.
I've been there!
(If your in the Big Easy and need a forecast, Bob is the person to watch)

I bet Bob Breck sleeps well at night. I know I do.

One last thing to mention. Rita has weakened a bit overnight. It may come shore as a cat 3. The bad news..it is looking more and more like the steering currents will collapse and someone gets 25 inches of rain.

Ask Max Mayfield and he will tell you- it is the WATER, not the wind that kills.

Later,
Dan

Can You Believe It!

Two category 5 hurricanes in matter of weeks. Hard to believe. Yet the satellite shots and the dropsonde numbers do not lie.

Rita is not just a cat 5 storm tonight..it is a STRONG Cat 5 storm. Fortunately hurricanes do not tend to stay at this level for long and I suspect it will be a 4 at landfall...maybe even down to a 3 (Let's hope so)

If it comes ashore as a strong 4 like Katrina, we are talking damage in the Billions. Even more worrying is the late model runs tonight which are hinting strongly at a path closer to Galveston. If it hits Port Lavaca to the SW then we are looking at a 10 Billion dollar storm. Put Galveston and Houston as the landfall and the price goes up to 50 Billion. (and the cost of Gasoline goes to $5/gallon)

It is certainly a Texas storm but the only other thing for sure tonight is that after it hits I will get a ton of emails with the same pictures of an Iowa tornado telling me that they were from a friend and the pictures are of Rita at landfall. I get so many of them everyday now (Supposedly katrina Pics) I just have taken to replying with the word "HOAX" and my initials. (Last year they were supposedly from Ivan)

Not sure why those pictures bother me so much. Maybe it is because I want people to look at what they are sent with a cautious eye and not believe everything they are told... Maybe that is the science training that was engrained in me at OU.

Still, I have yet to get the letters and emails that always follow a great disaster from people who:

A. Think this is a communist, or Alqueda plot.

B. Have a way of controlling these storms that the government is preventing from development and they would just develop themselves with a loan of 2- 3 million.

C. Are true seers of the future and predicted it a year ago.

D. A sign from God that the end is near!

But they are coming.. I can feel it... as a matter fact, I predicted them a year ago.

If you have relatives on the Texas coast.. tell'em to get the he** out of Dodge.

Later,
Dan